Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Identification of trends in rainfall,rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.     

A Spatial Database of Cropping System and its Characteristics to Aid Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies

Cropping system study is not only useful to understand the overall sustainability of agricultural system, but also it helps in generating many important parameters which are useful in climate change impact assessment. Considering its importance, Space Applications Centre, took up a project for mapping and characterizing major cropping systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. The study area included the five states of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, i.e. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. There were two aspects of the study. The first aspect included state and district level cropping system mapping using multi-date remote sensing (IRS-AWiFS and Radarsat ScanSAR) data. The second part was to characterize the cropping system using moderate spatial resolution multi-date remote sensing data (SPOT VGT NDVI) and ground survey. The remote sensing data was used to compute three cropping system performance indices (Multiple Cropping Index, Area Diversity Index and Cultivated Land Utilization Index). Ground survey was conducted using questionnaires filled up by 1,000 farmers selected from 103 villages based on the cropping systems map. Apart from ground survey, soil and water sampling and quality analysis were carried out to understand the effect of different cropping systems and their management practices. The results showed that, rice-wheat was the major cropping system of the IGP, followed by Rice-Fallow-Fallow and Maize-Wheat. Other major cropping systems of IGP included Sugarcane based, Pearl millet-Wheat, Rice-Fallow-Rice, Cotton-Wheat. The ground survey could identify 77 cropping systems, out of which 38 are rice-based systems. Out of these 77 cropping systems, there were 5 single crop systems, occupying 6.5% coverage (of all cropping system area), 56 double crop systems with 72.7% coverage, and 16 triple crop systems with 20.8% coverage. The cropping system performance analysis showed that the crop diversity was found to be highest in Haryana, while the cropping intensity was highest in Punjab state.     

Evaluation of a Photosynthesis-Based Canopy Resistance Formulation in the Noah Land-Surface Model

Accurately representing complex land-surface processes balancing complexity and realism remains one challenge that the weather modelling community is facing nowadays. In this study, a photosynthesis-based Gas-exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) is integrated into the Noah land-surface model replacing the traditional Jarvis scheme for estimating the canopy resistance and transpiration. Using 18-month simulations from the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), the impact of the photosynthesis-based approach on the simulated canopy resistance, surface heat fluxes, soil moisture, and soil temperature over different vegetation types is evaluated using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, Oklahoma Mesonet, 2002 International H₂O Project (IHOP_2002), and three Ameriflux sites. Incorporation of GEM into Noah improves the surface energy fluxes as well as the associated diurnal cycle of soil moisture and soil temperature during both wet and dry periods. An analysis of midday, average canopy resistance shows similar day-to-day trends in the model fields as seen in observed patterns. Bias and standard deviation analyses for soil temperature and surface fluxes show that GEM responds somewhat better than the Jarvis scheme, mainly because the Jarvis approach relies on a parametrised minimum canopy resistance and meteorological variables such as air temperature and incident radiation. The analyses suggest that adding a photosynthesis-based transpiration scheme such as GEM improves the ability of the land-data assimilation system to simulate evaporation and transpiration under a range of soil and vegetation conditions.     

Three‐dimensional modal pushover analysis of buildings subjected to two components of ground motion,including its evaluation for tall buildings

The modal pushover analysis (MPA) procedure, presently restricted to one horizontal component of ground motion, is extended to three‐dimensional analysis of buildings—symmetric or unsymmetric in plan—subjected to two horizontal components of ground motion, simultaneously. Also presented is a variant of this method, called the practical modal pushover analysis (PMPA) procedure, which estimates seismic demands directly from the earthquake response (or design) spectrum. Its accuracy in estimating seismic demands for very tall buildings is evaluated, demonstrating that for nonlinear systems this procedure is almost as accurate as the response spectrum analysis procedure is for linear systems. Thus, for practical applications, the PMPA procedure offers an attractive alternative whereby seismic demands can be estimated directly from the (elastic) design spectrum, thus avoiding the complications of selecting and scaling ground motions for nonlinear response history analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age and geochemistry of the Newania dolomite carbonatites, India: implications for the source of primary carbonatite magma

The Newania carbonatite complex of India is one of the few dolomite-dominated carbonatites of the world. Intruding into Archean basement gneisses, the rocks of the complex have undergone limited diversification and are not associated with any alkaline silicate rock. Although the magmatic nature of the complex was generally accepted, its age of emplacement had remained equivocal because of the disturbed nature of radioisotope systems. Many questions about the nature of its mantle source and mode of origin had remained unanswered because of lack of geochemical and isotopic data. Here, we present results of our effort to date the complex using ¹⁴⁷Sm–¹⁴³Nd, ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating techniques. We also present mineral chemistry, major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopic ratio data for these carbonatites. Our age data reveal that the complex was emplaced at ~1,473 Ma and parts of it were affected by a thermal event at ~904 Ma. The older ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb ages reported here (~2.4 Ga) and by one earlier study (~2.3 Ga; Schleicher et al. Chem Geol 140:261–273, 1997) are deemed to be a result of heterogeneous incorporation of crustal Pb during the post-emplacement thermal event. The thermal event had little effect on many magmatic signatures of these rocks, such as its dolomite–magnesite–ankerite–Cr-rich magnetite–magnesio-arfvedsonite–pyrochlore assemblage, mantle like δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and typical carbonatitic trace element patterns. Newania carbonatites show fractional crystallization trend from high-Mg to high-Fe through high-Ca compositions. The least fractionated dolomite carbonatites of the complex possess very high Mg# (≥80) and have similar major element oxide contents as that of primary carbonatite melts experimentally produced from peridotitic sources. In addition, lower rare earth element (and higher Sr) contents than a typical calcio-carbonatite and mantle like Nb/Ta ratios indicate that the primary magma for the complex was a magnesio-carbonatite melt and that it was derived from a carbonate bearing mantle. The Sr–Nd isotopic data suggest that the primary magma originated from a metasomatized lithospheric mantle. Trace element modelling confirms such an inference and suggests that the source was a phlogopite bearing mantle, located within the garnet stability zone.     

Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of Siwana Peralkaline Granites, West of Barmer, Rajasthan, India

The bimodal Malani suite, West of Barmer, Rajasthan is characterized by discontinuous, ring shaped outcrops of Siwana peralkaline granite with minor outcrops of basalt. The peralkaline, within- plate and A-type nature of granite are evident by its chemical characteristics. The granite is characterized by high Na₂O+K₂O, Fe/Mg, Zr, Nb, Y, Zn; low Al₂O₃, CaO and Sr and is significantly low in absolute abundance of trace and REE elements compared to type area Siwana granite. The granite is correlated to the “Pan-African” event and its petrogenesis and tectonic significance are discussed.     

Direct finite element method for nonlinear earthquake analysis of concrete dams: Simplification,modeling, and practical application

A direct finite element (FE) method for nonlinear response history analysis of semi-unbounded dam-water-foundation systems has recently been presented. The analysis procedure employs standard viscous-damper absorbing boundaries to model the semi-unbounded foundation and fluid domains and specifies the seismic input as effective earthquake forces—determined from a control motion defined at the foundation surface—at these boundaries. Presented in this paper are several simplifications to this direct FE method that greatly facilitates its implementation in commercial FE software. Also addressed is the modeling of the principal nonlinear mechanisms for concrete dams, calibration of damping in the numerical model to ensure consistency with values measured at actual dams, and practical procedures for implementation of the direct FE method with a commercial FE program.     

Highly heterogeneous Precambrian basement under the central Deccan Traps, India: Direct evidence from xenoliths in dykes

Crustal or mantle xenoliths are not common in evolved, tholeiitic flood basalts that cover huge areas of the Precambrian shields. Yet, the occasional occurrences provide the most direct and unequivocal evidence on basement composition. Few xenolith occurrences are known from the Deccan Traps, India, and inferences about the Deccan basement have necessarily depended on geophysical studies and geochemistry of Deccan lavas and intrusions. Here, we report two basalt dykes (Rajmane and Talwade dykes) from the central Deccan Traps that are extremely rich in crustal xenoliths of great lithological variety (gneisses, quartzites, granite mylonite, felsic granulite, carbonate rock, tuff). Because the dykes are parallel and only 4 km apart, and only a few kilometres long, the xenoliths provide clear evidence for high small-scale lithological heterogeneity and strong tectonic deformation in the Precambrian Indian crust beneath. Measured ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in the xenoliths range from 0.70935 (carbonate) to 0.78479 (granite mylonite). The Rajmane dyke sampled away from any of the xenoliths shows a present-day ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.70465 and initial (at 66 Ma) ratio of 0.70445. The dyke is subalkalic and fairly evolved (Mg No. = 44.1) and broadly similar in its Sr-isotopic and elemental composition to some of the lavas of the Mahabaleshwar Formation. The xenoliths are comparable lithologically and geochemically to basement rocks from the Archaean Dharwar craton forming much of southern India. As several lines of evidence suggest, the Dharwar craton may extend at least 350–400 km north under the Deccan lava cover. This is significant for Precambrian crustal evolution of India besides continental reconstructions.